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How To Trade Forex
Learn The Basics |Advanced Topics | Chart Patterns | Choose The Best Broker
Beware of scam companies! Trade only with a good licensed broker that holds an FCA or ASIC license like these.
USE A BROKER THAT PROVIDES 0.0 pips Spreads and 500:1 Leverage for better trading!
OPEN A DEMO ACCOUNT | OPEN A LIVE ACCOUNT
How does Forex Work?Forex trading is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another…
Basic TerminologyBefore trading currencies, an investor has to understand the basic terminology of the forex market…
Fundamental AnalysisFundamental analysis is the study of the overall economic, financial, political…
Technical AnalysisTechnical analysis is the study of prices over time, with charts being the primary tool…
Trend LinesThe term ‘trend’ describes the current direction of the financial instrument…
What is a Technical IndicatorTechnical Indicators are a result of mathematical calculations/algorithms…
Gold TradingAs an investment, gold is the most popular of the precious metals…
Order TypesA market order is an order to open a buy or sell position at…
We complete our education centre with a breakdown of Gold Trading and details of the different Order Types.
You can also review our glossary to find brief definitions of various trading and financial terms you may encounter.
Once you have familiarised yourself with the information and concepts, you can open a Demo Trading Account to practice what you have learnt and build on your knowledge and understanding of how to trade successfully. Treat your demo account as you would your real account.
Aprender a operar con Forex | Lernen Sie Forex zu handeln
Topics Which Every Trader Must Master.
Or at least know your Chart Patterns
Support and Resistance v.1
Support and Resistance v.2
Elliot Waves Theory
Elliott Waves 101
How to Trade Market Structure
More educational materials from TRESORFX.com and XNTRADES.com
"WIN EVERY TRADE" - The Guide To Flawless Trading
100% Accurate Forex Trading Signals
Best Forex Broker in the United Kingdom
Best Forex Broker in Switzerland
Best Forex Broker in Denmark | Bedste Forex Broker i Danmark
Best Forex Broker in Finland | Paras Forex-välittäjä Suomessa
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Best Forex Broker in Italy | Miglior broker Forex in Italia
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Best Forex Broker in Sweden | Bästa Forex Broker i Sverige
Best Forex Broker in the Netherlands | Beste Forex Makelaar in Nederland
Best Forex Broker in Malaysia | Broker Forex Terbaik di Malaysia
Best Forex Broker in Hong Kong
Best Forex Broker in China 中國最好的外匯經紀商
Best Forex Broker in Japan 日本で最高の外国為替ブローカー
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Best Forex Broker in Vietnam | Nhà môi giới Forex tốt nhất tại Việt Nam
Best Forex Broker in South Korea | 대한민국 최고의 외환 브로커
Best Forex Broker in India | இந்தியாவில் சிறந்த அந்நிய செலாவணி ப்ரோக்கர் | भारत में सर्वश्रेष्ठ विदेशी मुद्रा ब्रोकर
Best Forex Broker in Turkey | Türkiye'nin En İyi Forex Brokerliği
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Best Forex Broker in Slovakia | Najlepší Forex Broker na Slovensku
Best Forex Broker in Romania | Cel mai bun Broker Forex din România
Best Forex Broker in Russia | Лучший Форекс Брокер в России
Best Forex Broker in Czech Republic | Nejlepší Forex Broker v České republice
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Best Forex Broker in Hungary | A legjobb Forex bróker Magyarországon Best Forex Broker in Persia | بهترین کارگزاری فارکس در ایران
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Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter.
Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic!
Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below.
Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense.
Squeezes and other risksWe are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
EventsEconomic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem.
This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week.
For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
SqueezesShort squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity.
The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class.
A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone.
There's a reason for the car, don't worry
Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price.
If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point.
To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price.
Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble.
Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it.
The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard.
Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.”
If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely.
This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze.
For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts.
A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me:
Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Asymmetric lossesAlso known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy.
Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite.
A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012.
The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’.
They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally.
Then this happened.
Something that changed FX markets forever
The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%.
Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
Market positioningWe have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care?
Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care.
Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable.
To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on.
On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy.
We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like.
A carry t